by Adriana Hamacher

OP/ED - Anger and disappointment rippled throughout the ticket industry earlier this week when the UK competition regulator reversed its earlier decision and gave the go ahead to the controversial merger of Ticketmaster and Live Nation.

But have European companies such as Seatwave, been too quick to give in to disappointment? Could there in fact be a silver lining to this, largely, unpopular decision?

Looking at the wording of the Competition Commission’s judgement, what is more surprising than their unusual u-turn, is the negative reasoning contained in their statement:

“We found that, in most of these cases, the merged entity would suffer significant and immediate losses, with very uncertain prospects for long-term gain … Therefore, we concluded that it was unlikely that the merged entity would harm other ticketing agencies, promoters and venues in these ways.”

So they decided to clear the merger because they don’t think it will work? It appears so.

There’s also the golden rule that for music gigs to make money, they usually need to sell out. So the commission concluded that it would not be in Live Nation's interest to stop ticket sales through agents other than Ticketmaster. Similarly, for Ticketmaster, it would not be in their interest to stop promoting events organised by companies other than Live Nation - because consumers may then go elsewhere.

And as regards the plans for German rival CTS Eventim with which Live Nation already has a partnership agreement, the regulator adopted a rather philosophical attitude:

"the extent of Eventim's success in the UK will be determined by its own efforts and abilities, and will not be affected significantly by the merger".

What’s bad for the industry is often good for consumers and ticket prices may drop. But that’s not certain. If there’s no profit to be made out of the merger, the new company may have to raise prices. While that could be good for the competition, consumers will then be the ones to suffer. The Competition Commission’s reasoning will then not make much sense at all.

But ultimately the proof is in the pudding and while the industry waits for the US decision on the merger, Live Nation and Ticketmaster shares rose on Tuesday after the British ruling. Live Nation shares were up 3.9 percent, while Ticketmaster shares rose 5.5 percent.