Expect innovative merchandising and distribution deals.  The ability to stream concerts at home.  And a ton of data delivered to acts that will allow them to enhance their careers.

Will this be enough to improve Live Nation’s anemic bottom line?  Will Ticketmaster be able to demonstrate growth? Unclear at this time.  In a business where the lion’s share of the revenue goes to the acts, it’s hard to grow.  But this is their challenge.

And if you want to compete with the behemoth, you’ve got to deliver more.  And better.

Independent concert promoters must do more than pay an advance and sell tickets.  They too will be forced to go high tech. Government conditions will allow independent ticketing agencies to flourish, but will they?  Or will we learn that Ticketmaster does a good job (which Live Nation’s ticketing debacle proved).  Or will it all come down to money.  How much new agencies will kick back and how little they’re willing to profit.

Well, that’s not exactly accurate.

The behemoth will be TM/LN.  What does the act need the major label for when they get can almost all these services from TM/LN and retain the lion’s share of revenue from selling the music they do?

Expect major label rosters to continue to shrink.  The majors will focus on winners.  Broad-based acts that garner radio and TV airplay.  However, these acts tend not to be winners in the live arena, so those slices of live revenue and merchandising in the 360 deals are worth little.  And, the more people you try to reach, the blander the product.  And this business has always thrived on cutting edge product.  Which the major label won’t sign, because it doesn’t know how to expose it and doesn’t see instant revenue.

In sum, a bad recipe.

Best to spin off new artist development to a third party and turn the major into a licensing house.  Thrive from the catalog.

Read the rest here.